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06/05/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LPGA TOUR - MCDONALD'S LPGA CHAMPIONSHIP, Bulle Rock Golf Course, Havre de Grace, Maryland - Last year, Se Ri Pak knocked her approach shot within inches on the first playoff hole to set up a birdie that beat Karrie Webb at the McDonald's LPGA Championship.
It was Pak's fifth major championship -- and the second consecutive thrilling finish to a women's major after Webb holed out for eagle on the 72nd hole of the Kraft Nabisco Championship and then beat Lorena Ochoa in a playoff.
A year later, the women's golf landscape looks a little different.
Ochoa, with eight wins over the last 14 months, has overtaken Annika Sorenstam for the world's No. 1 ranking. With Sorenstam battling back and neck injuries, the Mexican star has even cemented her spot at the top.
But one thing Ochoa doesn't have -- something Sorenstam has 10 times over -- is a major championship. Her previous No. 1 goal was overtaking Sorenstam. Now, it has got to be to win a major.
Pak, Webb, Sorenstam and Ochoa will be joined in the field this week by the usual LPGA stars, including 17-year-old Michelle Wie, who will be looking to bounce back from her disastrous return -- and withdrawal -- at last week's Ginn Tribute.
The Golf Channel will have three hours of coverage of all four rounds this week, beginning at 12:30 p.m. (et) on Thursday and Friday and at 4:00 p.m. on both weekend days.
The tour's next stop is in two weeks at the Wegman's LPGA, where Jeong Jang won last year.
PGA TOUR
STANFORD ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP, TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee - When he won last year, Jeff Maggert became the first champion of the Stanford St. Jude Classic not to reach double digits under par since the tournament moved to TPC Southwind in 1989.
Maggert shot a five-under 65 Sunday to beat Tom Pernice, Jr. by two shots at nine-under 271.
The PGA Tour's Memphis stop was pushed back two weeks this year in a schedule re-shuffle ahead of the U.S. Open. It may have taken a hit already after Phil Mickelson withdrew from last week's Memorial with a left wrist injury.
As of Monday, Mickelson's name was still listed in the field. But in a release posted on his Web site last Friday, he said his chances of playing this week were "50-50."
Without Mickelson, the highest-ranked player in the field this week would be No. 4 Adam Scott, who was one of a handful of players edged by K.J. Choi at the Memorial on Sunday.
The Golf Channel will have live coverage and replays of the first two rounds, and CBS will broadcast the weekend action.
Next week is the season's second major, the U.S. Open at Oakmont. Geoff Ogilvy won last year's U.S. Open after Mickelson's now-infamous collapse on the 72nd hole at Winged Foot.
EUROPEAN TOUR
BA-CA GOLF OPEN, Fontana Golf Club, Vienna, Austria - Ireland's Padraig Harrington won the Irish Open. Welshman Bradley Dredge nearly claimed his own national title at the Wales Open. This week, Markus Brier will be attempting to accomplish something a little different.
The Austrian will be looking to defend a history-making title he won last year.
"I had tears in my eyes on the 18th green," Brier gushed after last season's BA-CA Open, where he beat Soren Hansen by three shots with a three-under 68 on Sunday.
Not only was it Brier's first European Tour win -- he had won the event twice when it was part of the Challenge Tour -- but it was also the first win of any kind by an Austrian on the circuit's international schedule.
Since then, Brier has won the Volvo China Open (in April) and posted a handful of other top finishes to make a berth in the next Ryder Cup a real possibility.
He would be the first-ever Austrian member of the Ryder Cup.
"To play in The Ryder Cup would be a dream come true and the wins have brought me nearer to believing I can do it," he told the European Tour. "When I came on tour seven years ago I was far away from even winning a tournament, but you have to keep believing in yourself and that is what I have done."
This week, he will be joined in the field by three members of the last European Ryder Cup team: Darren Clarke, Colin Montgomerie and Lee Westwood.
The Golf Channel will have coverage of all four rounds. Next week, the European Tour schedule has two official events: the U.S. Open and the Aa St. Omer Open.
CHAMPIONS TOUR
PRINCIPLE CHARITY CLASSIC, Glen Oaks Country Club, West Des Moines, Iowa - The Principle Charity Classic is a new event on the Champions Tour schedule this year. It replaces the old Allianz Championship, which relocated to Boca Raton, Florida.
Gil Morgan won the Allianz last year with rounds of 66-64-67 at Glen Oaks, beating Loren Roberts by one shot for his 24th Champions Tour title and first victory in two years.
Only Hale Irwin and Lee Trevino have won more times on the Champions Tour.
The Golf Channel will have two hours of coverage Friday, then three hours on both weekend days. Next up for the Champions Tour is the Bank of America Championship in two weeks. That event was cancelled last year because of flooding.
NATIONWIDE TOUR
REX HOSPITAL OPEN, TPC Wakefield Plantation, Raleigh, North Carolina - Brendan Pappas will return to defend his first Nationwide Tour win this week at the Rex Hospital Open.
Pappas had three runner-up finishes on the Nationwide Tour before he broke through at this event last year. He fired four rounds in the 60s to edge Charlie Wi by one shot.
This is the 14th year for this tournament and its seventh straight at the TPC Wakefield Plantation.
Next for the Nationwide Tour is the Showdown at Somerby.
<< Clemens has scar tissue injury, but still hopeful for Saturday
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Clemens has been diagnosed with a scar
tissue injury in his right groin, although the Yankees are still hoping the
seven-time CY Young Award winner will make his first start of the season on
Saturda
<< Castrale up to No. 22 in world rankings
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nicole Castrale defeated Lorena Ochoa in a
playoff Sunday to win the Ginn Tribute and moved up 20 places to No. 22 in the
latest Rolex Rankings for women's golf.
Ochoa remained No. 1, trailed again by
<< Hawpe named NL Player of the Week
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies right fielder Brad Hawpe has
been honored as the National League Player of the Week after compiling a .955
slugging percentage for the period ending June 3.
Hawpe topped the NL with eight
<< Seattle activates Reitsma from DL
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners activated relief pitcher
Chris Reitsma from the 15-day disabled list on Monday. To make room on the
roster, the club optioned pitcher Ryan Feierabend to Triple-A Tacoma.
Reitsma has b
Florida's four-run fifth downs Braves >>
AAtlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wes Obermueller outpitched Tim Hudson
and
Aaron Boone knocked in a pair of runs as Florida downed Atlanta, 6-4, in
the first of a four-game series at Turner Field.
Looking 5 1/2 games up to Atlan
Garland, White Sox hold off Yankees >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Garland pitched into the ninth inning and
the White Sox got homers from Jim Thome and Paul Konerko in a 6-4 win over the
New York Yankees in the opener of a four-game series.
Garland (4-3) won for the
Lowe helps Dodgers over Pirates >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Lowe no-hit the Pirates through six
innings, and the Los Angeles Dodgers held off a late rally to take a 6-5 win
over Pittsburgh, winning three of four over the Bucs.
Lowe (6-5) finished up allo
Penner's goal in third moves Ducks to brink of Cup >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dustin Penner scored the game-winning goal early
in the third period and Andy McDonald added two goals and an assist as the
Anaheim Ducks are one win away from their first championship after a 3-2 win
over t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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March Madness odds and printable March Madness brackets
With the field of 64/65 set, MySportsbook.com has the Florida Gators as the 4-1 favorite to successfully defend their National Championship. Men’s Division-1 College Basketball has not seen a team repeat as National Champions since Duke won back to back championships in ’91 & ‘92. After losing three out of four late in the season, the Gators are full of momentum as they won their last four games by an average of 18 points. Not surprisingly, right behind the Gators are the other three top seeds: Kansas 5-1, UNC 6-1, and Ohio State 7-1. Many consider Kansas to be the hottest team in the country, having won 11 straight. With Kansas, it is hard to ignore all of the early exits from the “dance” in recent years. With an impressive ACC Tournament, UNC ensured themselves the other top seed. UNC has about as much talent as any other team in the tournament but with a team that’s best players are primarily freshman and sophomores, could youth be a concern. Behind freshman sensation, Greg Oden, OSU will look to do what their football team failed to do just a few months earlier. OSU seems to have peeked at the right time, as they currently have a 17 game winning streak. Since the tournament field was expanded in 1985, there has never been an instance where all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It is obvious that each of the top seeds have the talent to make it through to Atlanta. But as everyone knows, when makes the NCAA Tournament so special are all of the spoilers and “Cinderella” stories that knock off the favorites on a daily basis.
Be sure to logon to MySportsbook.com to see check out all of the early lines and “March Madness” props. Also be sure to enter the “$10,000,000 Perfect Bracket Contest”. If someone has the skills to predict every winner, they will be set for life and walk away with $10,000,000. Even if no one can cash in on the Grand Prize, with a $35,000 guaranteed prize pool and a Mazda RX-8 to the first prize winner, Sportsbook.com’s bracket is a must for all “March Madness” fans.
MySportsbook.com’s odds to win the Championship and Regions:
| EAST | National Championship | Region |
| Arkansas | 300-1 | 50-1 |
| Belmont | 1000-1 | |
| Boston College | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Eastern KY | 1000-1 | |
| George Washington | 75-1 | |
| Georgetown | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| Marquette | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Michigan State | 100-1 | 25-1 |
| New Mexico St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| UNC | 6-1 | 6-5 |
| Oral Roberts | 500-1 | |
| Texas | 15-1 | 5-1 |
| Texas Tech | 200-1 | 5-1 |
| USC | 75-1 | 20-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Washington State | 40-1 | 15-1 |
| WEST | ||
| Duke | 50-1 | 10-1 |
| Florida A&M | 1000-1 | |
| Gonzaga | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Holy Cross | 300-1 | |
| Illinois | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Indiana | 75-1 | 40-1 |
| Kansas | 5-1 | 13-10 |
| Kentucky | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Niagara | 1000-1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 40-1 | 8-1 |
| Southern Ill. | 50-1 | 12-1 |
| UCLA | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| VCU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Villanova | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| VA Tech | 50-1 | 15-1 |
| Weber St | 1000-1 | |
| Wright St | 1000-1 | 300-1 |
| MIDWEST | ||
| Arizona | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| Butler | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Davidson | 300-1 | |
| Florida | 4-1 | 4-5 |
| Georgia Tech | 75-1 | 25-1 |
| Jackson State | 1000-1 | |
| Maryland | 30-1 | 6-1 |
| Miami-OH | 300-1 | |
| Notre Dame | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| ODU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Oregon | 40-1 | 6-1 |
| Purdue | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Texas A&M CC | 1000-1 | |
| UNLV | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Winthrop | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Wisconsin | 15-1 | 7-2 |
| SOUTH | ||
| Albany | 200-1 | |
| BYU | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Central CT St. | 1000-1 | |
| Creighton | 100-1 | 35-1 |
| Long Beach St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| Louisville | 40-1 | 10-1 |
| Memphis | 30-1 | 4-1 |
| Nevada | 75-1 | 35-1 |
| North Texas | 500-1 | |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 6-5 |
| Penn | 500-1 | |
| Stanford | 200-1 | 50-1 |
| Tennessee | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| Texas A&M | 12-1 | 11-5 |
| Virginia | 75-1 | 18-1 |
| Xavier | 100-1 | 40-1 |
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