CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction

Football Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself.

A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given the club some rare wiggle room.

Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success, proceed with caution.

It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the same one as past editions.

New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one that comes from behind and wins close games.

With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.

For the Argos, it's better than going south.

In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the 27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:

Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards), who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.

Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second meeting of the two teams.

Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should improve to 3-1.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.

Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this roster gets, the less the regular season matters.

The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.

That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den, having gone winless at BC since 2001.

Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the top.

Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:

Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the league's stingiest defense.

Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for the Lions to wake him up.

Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home stand beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.

Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a competitive division.

Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.

After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with the confidence of a playoff team.

Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.

For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.

Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68 percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.

Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year, has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114 yards.

Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton. Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets tougher.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move further away from the pack.

Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the contending team that many predicted in the preseason.

After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad, Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.

Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.

Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers' offense this week.

Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win for Hamilton.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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